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Picking up a saw does not guarantee a straight cut. Holding a chisel does not make you a sculptor. Tools can amplify poor judgment as readily as good judgment. Their usefulness depends on the operator's ability to direct them, interpret feedback, recognize mistakes, and make corrections. Those requirements also apply…
The common public perception of prompt engineering is purely mechanical: better inputs yield clearer outputs. However, a deeper look reveals that human emotion and tone have become algorithmic variables. LLMs do not “think” in facts; they predict the statistically most probable next word based on the mathematical…
I had the most satisfying Eureka experience of my career while attempting to teach flight instructors that praise is more effective than punishment for promoting skill-learning. When I had finished my enthusiastic speech, one of the most seasoned instructors in the audience raised his hand and made his own short…
Americans enjoy lower qualities of life on every single indicator that you can possibly think of. Life expectancy in France and Spain is 83 years, but in America it’s only 78 years — that’s half a decade of life, folks. The same is true for things like maternal mortality, stress, work and leisure, press freedom…
VEDANTAM: She says she divided the men who had stereotypes about her into three categories. DUKE: One was the flirting chauvinists, and that person was really viewing me in a way that was sexual. VEDANTAM: With the guys who were like that, Annie could make nice. DUKE: I never did go out on a date with any of them, but…
Numerous studies have demonstrated that people generally give an excessive amount of value to confirmatory information, that is, to positive or supportive data. The "most likely reason for the excessive influence of confirmatory information is that it is easier to deal with cognitively" (Gilovich 1993). It is much…
Most developers are religious about technology It’s true. Don’t be ashamed, you are not alone. Myself, and just about everyone else, is with you. Some of use are recovering from our self-imposed brain washing. Others of us are blissfully unaware of our predicament. But most of us have at least one religion we’ve…
[This paper is] about another exotic group: people from Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, and Democratic (WEIRD)societies. In particular, it’s about the Western, and more specifically American, undergraduates who form the bulk of the database in the experimental branches of psychology, cognitive science, and…
When faced with complexity, our first response is to retreat to the familiar, even if the familiar means failing. But in addition to reverting to what is familiar, we also have another reaction: fear. We are hardwired to perceive real change as threatening, so we instinctively reject it. Sure, a few of us have the…
Academic experts like the ones that Tetlock studied can suffer from the same problem. In fact, a little knowledge may be a dangerous thing in the hands of a hedgehog with a Ph.D. One of Tetlock’s more remarkable findings is that, while foxes tend to get better at forecasting with experience, the opposite is true of…
The boy's expression grew more intense. "This is a game based on a famous experiment called the 2-4-6 task, and this is how it works. I have a rule - known to me, but not to you - which fits some triplets of three numbers, but not others. 2-4-6 is one example of a triplet which fits the rule. In fact... let me write…
That's something I picked up in science, I suppose -- wanting to know the other side of the story, testing one's ideas against the alternative. Of course, one is naturally predisposed to what one already believes. Early nurturing and education is not to be discounted. One might even have a genetic nudge toward…
Another source of fallacy is the vicious circle of illusions which consists on the one hand of believing what we see, and on the other in seeing what we believe.
The most conspicuous example of the first class was Aristotle, who corrupted natural philosophy by his logic: fashioning the world out of categories; assigning to the human soul, the noblest of substances, a genus from words of the second intention; doing the business of density and rarity (which is to make bodies of…
The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion (either as being the received opinion or as being agreeable to itself) draws all things else to support and agree with it. And though there be a greater number and weight of instances to be found on the other side, yet these it either neglects and despises…
The very first article I ever had published appeared in Newsweek and was called "Not All Men Are Sly Foxes." It was all about what I perceived to be the negative stereotyping of fathers in children's literature. I spent an entire day in the children's section of my local library talking to the librarians and reading…
...why does it matter what biases and emotional predispositions scientists bring to their studies, so long as they are scrupulously honest and other people with different proclivities check their results? Presumably no one would argue that the conservative view on the sum of fourteen and twenty-seven differs from the…