Multiple Forms of Surprise

1-46. A strong correlation exists between deception and surprise. The more forms of surprise built into the deception plan, the more likely it will overwhelm the target. These forms of surprise include size, activity, location, unit, time, equipment, intent, and style. One effect of surprise is the cry-wolf syndrome in which repeated false alarms have the potential to desensitize an enemy. A pattern of behavior lulls an opponent into a sense of normal behavior to allow a friendly action to occur without an immediate counteraction.

1-47. An example occurred when Egypt successfully deceived Israel into a false sense of security in 1973 by mobilizing reservists twenty-three times before actually acting. Many times over one year, the same source provided information that the war would break out on a specific date. Each time, that day would come and go without an attack. This happened so often that when the source actually provided the date of the real attack, no one believed him.