# Natural Selection Resembles Bayesian Inference

The analogy is mathematically precise, and fascinating. In rough terms, it says that *the process of natural selection resembles the process of Bayesian inference*. A population of organisms can be thought of as having various 'hypotheses' about how to surviveâ€”each hypothesis corresponding to a different allele. (Roughly, an allele is one of several alternative versions of a gene.) In each successive generation, the process of natural selection modifies the proportion of organisms having each hypothesis, according to Bayes' rule!
Now let's be more precise:

Bayes' rule says if we start with a 'prior probability' for some hypothesis to be true, divide it by the probability that some observation is made, then multiply by the 'conditional probability' that this observation will be made given that the hypothesis is true, we'll get the 'posterior probability' that the hypothesis is true *given that the observation is made.*

## Notes:

**Folksonomies:** evolution biology bayesian

**Taxonomies:**

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/science/mathematics/statistics (0.354091)

/science (0.254250)

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Bayes:Person (0.965067 (positive:0.340769))

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Conditional probability (0.685735): dbpedia | freebase

Bayesian probability (0.644155): dbpedia | freebase

Posterior probability (0.527599): dbpedia | freebase

Scientific method (0.524192): dbpedia | freebase

Likelihood function (0.485319): dbpedia | freebase

Prior probability (0.479354): dbpedia | freebase

Statistical inference (0.445175): dbpedia | freebase

Decision theory (0.443915): dbpedia | freebase

Bayesian statistics (0.439191): dbpedia | freebase

Probability theory (0.431157): dbpedia | freebase | opencyc

Probability (0.412704): dbpedia | freebase

Bayesian inference (0.402358): dbpedia | freebase

Bayesian network (0.396337): dbpedia | freebase | opencyc | yago

Observation (0.365695): dbpedia | freebase | opencyc

Naive Bayes classifier (0.363462): dbpedia | freebase | yago

Logic (0.352150): dbpedia | freebase | opencyc

Edwin Thompson Jaynes (0.331241): dbpedia | freebase | yago

Biology (0.325227): dbpedia | freebase | opencyc

Prosecutor\'s fallacy (0.318460): dbpedia | freebase | yago

Hypothesis (0.312743): dbpedia | freebase

Natural selection (0.310810): dbpedia | freebase

Minimum description length (0.306045): dbpedia | freebase

Gene (0.302671): dbpedia | freebase

Evolution (0.295408): dbpedia | freebase | opencyc

Event (0.293422): dbpedia | freebase

Thomas Bayes (0.287605): dbpedia | freebase | yago

Control theory (0.285869): dbpedia | freebase

Philosophy of science (0.284700): dbpedia | freebase

Bayesian spam filtering (0.281893): dbpedia | freebase

**Information Geometry**

**Books, Brochures, and Chapters>**

**Book:**Baez, John (February 3, 2016)

*, Information Geometry*, Retrieved on 2016-12-24

**Folksonomies:**biology information science probability