27 JUL 2018 by ideonexus
Successful Prediction
Successful prediction is the revenge of the nerds. Superforecasters are intelligent but not necessarily brilliant, falling just in the top fifth of the population. They are highly numerate, not in the sense of being math whizzes but in the sense of comfortably thinking in guesstimates. They have personality traits that psychologists call “openness to experience” (intellectual curiosity and a taste for variety), “need for cognition” (pleasure taken in intellectual activity), and “int...Folksonomies: statistics prediction
Folksonomies: statistics prediction
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notes22 SEP 2017 by ideonexus
Algorithms are Subjective/Creative Things
he algorithm may be the essence of computer science – but it’s not precisely a scientific concept. An algorithm is a system, like plumbing or a military chain of command. It takes knowhow, calculation and creativity to make a system work properly. But some systems, like some armies, are much more reliable than others. A system is a human artefact, not a mathematical truism. The origins of the algorithm are unmistakably human, but human fallibility isn’t a quality that we associate with ...Folksonomies: programming computer science
Folksonomies: programming computer science
1 notes
notes19 DEC 2013 by ideonexus
Understanding Awe
It can be hard to generalize what people consider jaw-dropping, but Vohs says research demonstrates what consistently creates an awesome experience. Travel ranks high. So does gazing at the cosmos on a clear night or watching a sensational film, as well as anytime we encounter massive quantities: colorful tulips in bloom, a bustling market in India, or a stunning school of fish.
Novelty and perceptual vastness forces us into the present moment. The study underscores the importance of cultiva... 1 notes
notesThe sense of wonder has health benefits, may open us up to learning new information, but what is it exactly?
15 NOV 2013 by ideonexus
The World is a Black Box
The world with its quarks and chromosomes, its distant lands and spiral nebulae, is like a vast computer in a black box, forever sealed except for its input and output registers. These we directly observe, and in the light of them we speculate on the structure of the machine, the universe. Thus it is that we think up the quarks and chromosomes, the distant lands and the nebulae; they would account for the observable data. When an observation turns out unexpectedly, we may try modifying our th...Folksonomies: scientific method empiricism
Folksonomies: scientific method empiricism
1 We don't know how it works, we only see the inputs and outputs and must extrapolate hypotheses from what we see.
20 JUN 2012 by ideonexus
The Danger of Measurement
Measurement has too often been the leitmotif of many investigations rather than the experimental examination of hypotheses. Mounds of data are collected, which are statistically decorous and methodologically unimpeachable, but conclusions are often trivial and rarely useful in decision making. This results from an overly rigorous control of an insignificant variable and a widespread deficiency in the framing of pertinent questions. Investigators seem to have settled for what is measurable ins... 1 notes
notesIs that it can replace testing hypotheses. We gather data instead of validating exactly what it is we'd like to know.
12 JUN 2012 by ideonexus
Changing Your Mind is a Virtue
All interpretations made by a scientist are hypotheses, and all hypotheses are tentative. They must forever be tested and they must be revised if found to be unsatisfactory. Hence, a change of mind in a scientist, and particularly in a great scientist, is not only not a sign of weakness but rather evidence for continuing attention to the respective problem and an ability to test the hypothesis again and again. Folksonomies: virtue hypotheses
Folksonomies: virtue hypotheses
1 It shows you're paying attentions and are flexible to new evidence.
05 JUN 2012 by ideonexus
How Science Really Works
It is often held that scientific hypotheses are constructed, and are to be constructed, only after a detailed weighing of all possible evidence bearing on the matter, and that then and only then may one consider, and still only tentatively, any hypotheses. This traditional view however, is largely incorrect, for not only is it absurdly impossible of application, but it is contradicted by the history of the development of any scientific theory. What happens in practice is that by intuitive ins...Folksonomies: scientific method hypothesis
Folksonomies: scientific method hypothesis
1 notes
notesThe scientist focuses on certain details, then hypothesizes, the hypothesis that holds up becomes theory.
26 APR 2012 by ideonexus
Two Views of Consciousness
There is no end of hypotheses about consciousness, particularly by philosophers. But most of these are not what we might call principled scientific theories, based on observables and related to the functions of the brain and body. Several theories of consciousness based on functionalism and on the machine model of the mind... have recently been proposed. These generally come in two flavors: one in which consciousness is assumed to be efficacious, and another in which it is considered an epiph...Folksonomies: consciousness
Folksonomies: consciousness
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notesOne view is that it is the executive function of the brain, the other is that it is a byproduct of its processing.
13 APR 2012 by ideonexus
What It Means to be a Scientist
In reality, scientists are just people like you and me. Most of us don't wear lab coats (I don't) or work with bubbling beakers or sparking van de Graf generators (unless they are chemists or physicists who actually work with that equipment). Most scientists are not geniuses either. It is true that, on average, scientists tend to be better educated than the typical person on the street, but that education is a necessity to learn all the information that allows a scientist to make discoveries....Folksonomies: scientific virtues scientific method
Folksonomies: scientific virtues scientific method
It's not about how they dress or their education, but their adherence to the scientific method.
30 JAN 2012 by ideonexus
Biology is Too complex for Mathematical Explanation
There is a strange disparity between the sciences of inert matter and those of life. Astronomy, mechanics, and physics are based on concepts which can be expressed, tersely and elegantly, in mathematical language. They have built up a universe as harmonious as the monuments of ancient Greece. They weave about it a magnificent texture of calculations and hypotheses. They search for reality beyond the realm of common thought up to unutterable abstractions consisting only of equations of symbols...Folksonomies: biology mathematics
Folksonomies: biology mathematics
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notesThe biologist is inundated by a mass of facts.
