Climate Forecasts vs Projections
"Projections are essential for giving us information on long-term trends, but the timescale is beyond what many policy makers (and the public) consider to be relevant to their decision-making processes. Climate forecasts seek to address this issue by providing information on a shorter term (decadal) that can be used directly to inform policy," he said. "As climate forecasts improve, they will become more and more important in providing reliable information on what is likely to happen to the climate over the next decade. This paper by Risbey et al demonstrates a new technique for developing climate forecasts. "In many ways we may have been lucky over the past 15 years, as temperatures have not risen as dramatically as expected due to being in a period of less intense El Niņos. To some extent the long term climate change signal will have to 'catch up' as it has been lagging behind our best projections for over a decade now. This suggests significant warming (and other associated changes, such as drought in Eastern Australia) when this occurs."
Notes:
Forecasts are short-term predictions intended to inform policymakers because projections, which predict the long-term trend, are beyond political scope.
Folksonomies: climate change predictions projections
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Concepts:
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Study vindicates climate models accused of 'missing the pause'
