Climate Forecasts vs Projections

"Projections are essential for giving us information on long-term trends, but the timescale is beyond what many policy makers (and the public) consider to be relevant to their decision-making processes. Climate forecasts seek to address this issue by providing information on a shorter term (decadal) that can be used directly to inform policy," he said. "As climate forecasts improve, they will become more and more important in providing reliable information on what is likely to happen to the climate over the next decade. This paper by Risbey et al demonstrates a new technique for developing climate forecasts. "In many ways we may have been lucky over the past 15 years, as temperatures have not risen as dramatically as expected due to being in a period of less intense El Niños. To some extent the long term climate change signal will have to 'catch up' as it has been lagging behind our best projections for over a decade now. This suggests significant warming (and other associated changes, such as drought in Eastern Australia) when this occurs."


Forecasts are short-term predictions intended to inform policymakers because projections, which predict the long-term trend, are beyond political scope.

Folksonomies: climate change predictions projections

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Time (0.955294): dbpedia | freebase | opencyc
Term (0.899658): dbpedia | freebase
Prediction (0.653156): dbpedia | freebase
Policy (0.650252): dbpedia | freebase | opencyc
Future (0.617736): dbpedia | freebase
Futurology (0.591321): dbpedia
Forecasting (0.569622): dbpedia | freebase | opencyc

 Study vindicates climate models accused of 'missing the pause'
Electronic/World Wide Web>Internet Article:  Hopkin, Michael , Study vindicates climate models accused of 'missing the pause', Retrieved on 2014-07-21
  • Source Material []
  • Folksonomies: climate change


    21 JUL 2014

     Climate Change

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