The Success of Spaceguard

For years, many scientists warned of the dangers that asteroids pose to life on Earth, but for many years they weren’t listened to. Even after it was first proposed, in 1980, that the dinosaurs were killed off by a huge asteroid striking the Yucatán Peninsula in Mexico,1 there was, in the words of leading astronomer Clark R. Chapman, a “giggle factor” associated with the risk from asteroids.2 This all changed in 1994 when comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 thudded into the side of Jupiter with th...

 Debt Makes College a Risky Investment

Our findings, especially those that examine household decision-making, emphasize that while the return to higher education is high, it is not a safe investment for many households. The deterrent effect of risk survives the ability of agents to feasibly debt finance college with student loans. The main force here is that debt makes higher education riskier for student borrowers, suggesting that alternatives that are mindful of risk may be more effective. In turn, the focus of the policy experi...

 The Importance of Reducing Mundane Risks

Life expectancy for a healthy American man of my age is about 90. (That’s not to be confused with American male life expectancy at birth, only about 78.) If I’m to achieve my statistical quota of 15 more years of life, that means about 15 times 365, or 5,475, more showers. But if I were so careless that my risk of slipping in the shower each time were as high as 1 in 1,000, I’d die or become crippled about five times before reaching my life expectancy. I have to reduce my risk of shower...