Words of Advice: Become a School Insider

Steven Hodas is the former Executive Director of Innovate NYC Schools, a New York City Department of Education initiative to foster smart demand and innovative solutions. Hodas has worked closely with early-stage entrepreneurs and launched two companies of his own. "Assuming you were not recently a teacher yourself, I suggest that you work hard to get inside the school, inside the classroom, inside the day-to-day lives of the educators you want to help. If you’re resourceful enough to get ...

 Understanding Creativity Enabled Through Information Tech...

Here’s the question I’ve been asking myself: When technology enables a person to make something that looks professional without having to master any degree of craft, does that increase or decrease the likelihood of creativity? And can educators be lulled into a false impression that they have been developing creativity in students when using technologies that produce brilliantlooking results? Does my Wordle cloud give only the illusion of creativity? A number of software applications are...

 Nemesis

But why should comets become more likely to hit us every million years? Here we launch ourselves into deep speculation. It has been suggested that the sun has a sister star, and the two orbit each other with a periodicity of about 26 million years. This hypothetical binary partner, which has never been seen but which has nevertheless been given the dramatic name Nemesis, passes, once per orbital rotation, through the so-called Oort Cloud, the belt of perhaps a trillion comets which orbits the...

 The Cost of Irrational Fears

Imagine the typical emotional reaction to seeing a spider: fear, ranging from minor trepidation to terror. But what is the likelihood of dying from a spider bite? Fewer than four people a year (on average) die from spider bites, establishing the expected risk of death by spider at lower than 1 in 100 million. This risk is so minuscule that it is actually counterproductive to worry about it: Millions of people die each year from stress-related illnesses. The startling implication is that the r...

 Predictability and the Base Rate

Whenever a statistician wants to predict the likelihood of some event based on the available evidence, there are two main sources of information that have to be taken into account: (1) the evidence itself, for which a reliability figure has to be calculated; and (2) the likelihood of the event calculated purely in terms of relative incidence. The second figure here is the base rate. Since it is just a number, obtained by the seemingly dull process of counting, it frequently gets overlooked wh...

 Corollaries on the Probability that a Research Finding is...

Corollary 1: The smaller the studies conducted in a scientific field, the less likely the research findings are to be true. Corollary 2: The smaller the effect sizes in a scientific field, the less likely the research findings are to be true. Corollary 3: The greater the number and the lesser the selection of tested relationships in a scientific field, the less likely the research findings are to be true. Corollary 4: The greater the flexibility in designs, definitions, outcomes, and analy...