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Big ideas are typically revealed via: • Core concepts (migration, function) • Focusing themes (good vs. evil) • Ongoing debate/issues (nature vs. nurture) • Illuminating paradox/problem (freedom vs. responsibility) • Organizing theory/principle (less is more) • Underlying assumption/perspectives (Occam’s Razor) • Key…
In climate forecasting, the situation is more equivocal: the theory about the greenhouse effect is strong, which supports more complicated models. However, temperature data is very noisy, which argues against them. Which consideration wins out? We can address this question empirically, by evaluating the success and…
RULE I We are to admit no more causes of natural things, than such as are both true and sufficient to explain their appearances. To this purpose the philosophers say, that Nature does nothing in vain, and more is in vain, when less will serve; for Nature is pleased with simplicity, and affects not the pomp of…
I think that considerable progress can be made in the analysis of the operations of nature by the scholar who reduces rather complicated phenomena to their proximate causes and primitive forces, even though the causes of those causes have not yet been detected.