You Can't Predict What You Are Going to Do
In the physical world, the only way to learn tomorrow’s weather in detail is to wait twenty-four hours and see, even if nothing is random at all. The universe is computing tomorrow’s weather as rapidly and as efficiently as possible; any smaller model is inaccurate, and the smallest error is amplified into large effects.
At a personal level, even if the world is as deterministic as a computer program, you still can’t predict what you’re going to do. This is because your prediction method would involve a mental simulation of you that produces its results slower than you do. You can’t think faster than you think. You can’t stand on your own shoulders.
Notes:
Rudy Rucker on why our brains are like the weather, so complex that only the actual system can run the computation.
Folksonomies: predictability modeling
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This Will Make You SmarterSchemas
Predicting the Future
Memes about entropy, probability, statistics, Bayesian modeling, and generally predicting the future.
