How Big Ideas are Revealed

Big ideas are typically revealed via: • Core concepts (migration, function) • Focusing themes (good vs. evil) • Ongoing debate/issues (nature vs. nurture) • Illuminating paradox/problem (freedom vs. responsibility) • Organizing theory/principle (less is more) • Underlying assumption/perspectives (Occam’s Razor) • Key questions • Insightful inferences from facts

 The Problem with Occam's Razor

In climate forecasting, the situation is more equivocal: the theory about the greenhouse effect is strong, which supports more complicated models. However, temperature data is very noisy, which argues against them. Which consideration wins out? We can address this question empirically, by evaluating the success and failure of different predictive approaches in climate science. What matters most, as always, is how well the predictions do in the real world. I would urge caution against reducin...