Hedgehogs Do Worse the More Information They Have

Academic experts like the ones that Tetlock studied can suffer from the same problem. In fact, a little knowledge may be a dangerous thing in the hands of a hedgehog with a Ph.D. One of Tetlock’s more remarkable findings is that, while foxes tend to get better at forecasting with experience, the opposite is true of hedgehogs: their performance tends to worsen as they pick up additional credentials. Tetlock believes the more facts hedgehogs have at their command, the more opportunities they ...

 A Biased Explanation of Foxes and Hedgehogs

How Foxes Think Multidisciplinary: Incorporate ideas from different disciplines and regardless of their origin on the political spectrum. Adaptable: Find a new approach—or pursue multiple approaches at the same time—if they aren’t sure the original one is working. Self-critical: Sometimes willing (if rarely happy) to acknowledge mistakes in their predictions and accept the blame for them. Tolerant of complexity: See the universe as complicated, perhaps to the point of many fundament...

 Parasititic Influence on Evolution

Again and again in recent years evolutionary biologists have found themselves returning to the theme of parasites. As Is Richard Dawkins put it in a recent paper: "Eavesdrop [over] morning coffee at any major centre of evolutionary theory today, and you will find 'parasite' to be one of the commonest words in ti the language. Parasites are touted as the prime movers in the evolution of sex. promising a final solution to that problem of problems.'" Parasites have a deadlier effect than preda...