07 NOV 2017 by ideonexus
Fall of Atlantis
"But the divine revenge overtook not long after those proud enterprises. For within less than the space of one hundred years, the great Atlantis was utterly lost and destroyed: not by a great earthquake, as your man saith; (for that whole tract is little subject to earthquakes;) but by a particular' deluge or inundation; those countries having, at this day, far greater rivers and far higher mountains to pour down waters, than any part of the old world. But it is true that the same inundation ...Folksonomies: speculation alternate history
Folksonomies: speculation alternate history
Memed for the speculation of flood in America.
24 DEC 2013 by ideonexus
The Pareto Distribution
The Pareto distribution shows up in a remarkably wide array of complex systems. Together, “the” and “of” account for 10 percent of all words used in English. The most volatile day in the history of a stock market will typically be twice as volatile as that of the second-most volatile and ten times the tenth-most. Tag frequency on Flickr photos obeys a Pareto distribution, as does the magnitude of earthquakes, the popularity of books, the size of asteroids, and the social connectedness...Folksonomies: statistics
Folksonomies: statistics
Clay Shirky on what is also known as the "long-tail effect" or "90% of everything is crap" effect.
12 APR 2013 by ideonexus
Prediction VS Forecast
The official position of the USGS is even more emphatic: earthquakes cannot be predicted. “Neither the USGS nor Caltech nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake,” the organization’s Web site asserts.24 “They do not know how, and they do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future.” Earthquakes cannot be predicted? This is a book about prediction, not a book that makes predictions, but I’m willing to stick my neck out: I predict that there will...One is a definitive statement, the other a probabilistic one.
12 APR 2013 by ideonexus
The 1755 Lisbon Earthquake as a Secular Turning Point
...of particular interest here are the circumstances which led to the earthquake being attributed to 'natural' rather than 'supernatural' causes. Before that, men traditionally interpreted earthquakes as a dramatic means of communication between gods and humans. In particular, such events previously had been explained as indicating some disturbance between earthly and heavenly spheres. The Lisbon earthquake can be identified as a turning point in human history which moved the consideration of...It was the first natural disaster not attributed to supernatural causes.
21 JUN 2012 by ideonexus
Benjamin Franklin Thwarts the Will of God
When Benjamin Franklin invented the lightning-rod, the clergy, both in England and America, with the enthusiastic support of George III, condemned it as an impious attempt to defeat the will of God. For, as all right-thinking people were aware, lightning is sent by God to punish impiety or some other grave sin—the virtuous are never struck by lightning. Therefore if God wants to strike any one, Benjamin Franklin [and his lightning-rod] ought not to defeat His design; indeed, to do so is hel...His lightning rod is condemned by the religious.