Estimating Technical Progress

Overestimating the potential upside of every new sign of tech progress is as common as downplaying the downsides. It's easy to let our imaginations run wild with how any new development is going to change everything practically overnight. The unforeseen technical roadblocks that inevitably spring up are only one reason for this consistent miscalculation. Human nature is simply out of sync with the nature of technological development. We see progress as linear, a straight line of improvement. ...

 Gradualistic Mode and Saltatory Mode

Based on modern and contemporary history, there are two ways in which the results of fundamental scientific research can be converted into practical applications: gradualistic mode and saltatory mode. Gradualistic mode: theoretical, fundamental results are gradually applied to technology; advances accumulate until they reach a breakthrough. Recent examples include the development of space technology. Saltatory mode: theoretical, fundamental results rapidly become applied technology, leading...

 Take a Break to Find a Solution

If a solution fails to appear ... and yet we feel success is just around the corner, try resting for a while. ... Like the early morning frost, this intellectual refreshment withers the parasitic and nasty vegetation that smothers the good seed. Bursting forth at last is the flower of truth.