20 MAR 2018 by ideonexus
Lower Mortality in Moderate Drinkers VS Abstainers Result...
RESULTS: Without adjustment, meta-analysis of all 87 included studies replicated the classic J-shaped curve, with low-volume drinkers (1.3-24.9 g ethanol per day) having reduced mortality risk (RR = 0.86, 95% CI [0.83, 0.90]). Occasional drinkers (<1.3 g per day) had similar mortality risk (RR = 0.84, 95% CI [0.79, 0.89]), and former drinkers had elevated risk (RR = 1.22, 95% CI [1.14, 1.31]). After adjustment for abstainer biases and quality-related study characteristics, no significant r...Folksonomies: longevity alcohol consumption
Folksonomies: longevity alcohol consumption
1 The studies fail to take into account that many abstainers are former alcoholics who are biased toward ill health.
12 DEC 2017 by ideonexus
Capitalism Demands Faith in Scientific Progress
ScientiFolksonomies: capitalism scientific progress
Folksonomies: capitalism scientific progress
1 
notes
notes13 MAR 2014 by ideonexus
Perceiving Infinite Suns in the Night Sky
Elpino. Why then do we not see the other bright bodies which are earths circling around the bright bodies which are suns? For beyond these we can detect no motion whatever; and why do all other mundane bodies (except those known as comets) appear always in the same order and at the same distance?
Philotheo. The reason is that we discern only the largest suns, immense bodies. But we do not discern the earths because, being much smaller, they are invisible to us. Similarly it is not impossible... 1 notes
notesBruno's observations and reasoning.
03 MAR 2014 by ideonexus
The Success of Science
One of the reasons for its success is that science has
built-in, self-correcting machinery at its very heart. It takes
account of human fallibility. One of its commandments is,
"Mistrust arguments from authority." Too many such arguments
have turned out to be painfully wrong. Authorities must prove
their contentions like anybody else. This independence of
science, its unwillingness to pay automatic obeisance to
conventional wisdom, makes it dangerous to doctrines less self-
critical. ... 1 notes
notesComes from its built-in self-criticism, its proven results, and the reverence and awe it inspires.
22 JAN 2014 by ideonexus
Beauty is More Important than Accuracy
I think that there is a moral to this story, namely that it is more important to have beauty in one's equations than to have them fit experiment. If Schroedinger had been more confident of his work, he could have published it some months earlier, and he could have published a more accurate equation .... It seems that if one is working from the point of view of getting beauty in one's equations, and if one has really a sound insight, one is on a sure line of progress. If there is not complete ... 1 notes
notesInteresting argument: beauty in an equation is more important than having it completely fit the reality.
02 JAN 2014 by ideonexus
Everyone Can be Arrogant
Many things may become baggage, may become encumbrances if we cling to them blindly and uncriticaliy. Let us take some illustrations. Having made mistakes, you may feel that, come what may, you are saddled with them and so become dispirited; if you have not made mistakes, you may feel that you are free from error and so become conceited. Lack of achievement in work may breed pessimism and depression, while achievement may breed pride and arrogance. A comrade with a short record of struggle ma... 1 notes
notesAll people have some specialization that allows them to look down on others.
24 DEC 2013 by ideonexus
Predictability and the Base Rate
Whenever a statistician wants to predict the likelihood of some event based on the available evidence, there are two main sources of information that have to be taken into account: (1) the evidence itself, for which a reliability figure has to be calculated; and (2) the likelihood of the event calculated purely in terms of relative incidence. The second figure here is the base rate. Since it is just a number, obtained by the seemingly dull process of counting, it frequently gets overlooked wh...Folksonomies: predictability
Folksonomies: predictability
1 notes
notesKeith Devlin explains why the accuracy of tests and measurments must take into account the base rate for the phenomenon.
18 JAN 2013 by ideonexus
Chinese Cultural Innovations Turned to Ritual
When Europeans first arrived in China, three hundred years a^ago, they found that almost all the arts had reached a certain degree of perfection there, and they were surprised that a people which had attained this point should not have gone beyond it. At a later period they discovered traces of some higher branches of science that h had been lost. The nation was absorbed in productive industry; the greater part of its scientific processes had been preserved, but science itself no longer exist...
1 An account of the amazing art and inventions found in China, but how these had turned into unquestioned rituals--performed exactly over and over again through the ages without alteration or innovation. The culture had stagnated.
21 JUN 2012 by ideonexus
Physics VS Metaphysics
In the 1920s, there was a dinner at which the physicist Robert W. Wood was asked to respond to a toast ... "To physics and metaphysics." Now by metaphysics was meant something like philosophy—truths that you could get to just by thinking about them. Wood took a second, glanced about him, and answered along these lines: The physicist has an idea, he said. The more he thinks it through, the more sense it makes to him. He goes to the scientific literature, and the more he reads, the more promi... 1 notes
notesThe key difference is experimentation.
29 MAY 2012 by ideonexus
Knowledge of Nature is Like an Account at the Bank
Knowledge of Nature is an account at bank, where each dividend is added to the principal and the interest is ever compounded; and hence it is that human progress, founded on natural knowledge, advances with ever increasing speed. Where the interest compounds and the growth is logarithmic(?).
