12 DEC 2017 by ideonexus
Level Two Chaos
Level two chaos is chaos that reacts to predictions about it, and therefore can never be predicted accurately. Markets, for example, are a level two chaotic system. What will happen if we develop a computer program that forecasts with 100 per cent accuracy the price of oil tomorrow? The price of oil will immediately react to the forecast, which would consequently fail to materialise. If the current price of oil is $90 a barrel, and the infallible computer program predicts that tomorrow it wil...Folksonomies: chaos probability
Folksonomies: chaos probability
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notes13 AUG 2013 by ideonexus
The World Needs Heretics
As a scientist I do not have much faith in predictions. Science is organized unpredictability. The best scientists like to arrange things in an experiment to be as unpredictable as possible, and then they do the experiment to see what will happen. You might say that if something is predictable then it is not science. When I make predictions, I am not speaking as a scientist. I am speaking as a story-teller, and my predictions are science-fiction rather than science. The predictions of science... 1 notes
notesScientists who challenge the dominant paradigms.
31 JUL 2013 by ideonexus
The Difference in How the Public and Scientists Use "Theory"
The formal scientific definition of theory is quite different from the everyday meaning of the word. It refers to a comprehensive explanation of some aspect of nature that is supported by a vast body of evidence. Many scientific theories are so well established that no new evidence is likely to alter them substantially. For example, no new evidence will demonstrate that the Earth does not orbit around the sun (heliocentric theory), or that living things are not made of cells (cell theory), th...
1 In common usage, it is the equivalent of an educated guess, in science, it is nearly synonymous with the facts it is built on.
13 APR 2013 by ideonexus
Bayes and Richard Price on Predictions
Bayes’s much more famous work, “An Essay toward Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances,”24 was not published until after his death, when it was brought to the Royal Society’s attention in 1763 by a friend of his named Richard Price. It concerned how we formulate probabilistic beliefs about the world when we encounter new data.
Price, in framing Bayes’s essay, gives the example of a person who emerges into the world (perhaps he is Adam, or perhaps he came from Plato’s cave) ...Folksonomies: statistics predictions
Folksonomies: statistics predictions
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notesGiving the example of someone who watches the sun rise each day, increasing the probability that it will rise again the next day, but that probability never reaching 100 percent.
12 APR 2013 by ideonexus
Prediction VS Forecast
The official position of the USGS is even more emphatic: earthquakes cannot be predicted. “Neither the USGS nor Caltech nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake,” the organization’s Web site asserts.24 “They do not know how, and they do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future.”
Earthquakes cannot be predicted? This is a book about prediction, not a book that makes predictions, but I’m willing to stick my neck out: I predict that there will... 1 notes
notesOne is a definitive statement, the other a probabilistic one.
12 APR 2013 by ideonexus
A Biased Explanation of Foxes and Hedgehogs
How Foxes Think
Multidisciplinary: Incorporate ideas from different disciplines and regardless of their origin on the political spectrum.
Adaptable: Find a new approach—or pursue multiple approaches at the same time—if they aren’t sure the original one is working.
Self-critical: Sometimes willing (if rarely happy) to acknowledge mistakes in their predictions and accept the blame for them.
Tolerant of complexity: See the universe as complicated, perhaps to the point of many fundament... 1 notes
notesNate Silver provides a very negative portrayal of those who think like hedgehogs, settling down in one field of expertise, compared to those who think like foxes, darting from field to field.
16 MAY 2012 by ideonexus
Physics Reduced to Probability
Philosophers have said that if the same circumstances don't always produce the same results, predictions are impossible and science will collapse. Here is a circumstance—identical photons are always coming down in the same direction to the piece of glass—that produces different results. We cannot predict whether a given photon will arrive at A or B. All we can predict is that out of 100 photons that come down, an average of 4 will be reflected by the front surface. Does this mean that phy...Folksonomies: complexity probability
Folksonomies: complexity probability
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notesFeynman explains that probabilities are the best we can hope for in complex systems.
31 JAN 2012 by ideonexus
The Beauty of Newton's Hypothesis
Newton supposed that the case of the planet was similar to that of [a ball spun around on the end of an elastic string]; that it was always pulled in the direction of the sun, and that this attraction or pulling of the sun produced the revolution of the planet, in the same way that the traction or pulling of the elastic string produces the revolution of the ball. What there is between the sun and the planet that makes each of them pull the other, Newton did not know; nobody knows to this day;...Folksonomies: gravity hypothesis
Folksonomies: gravity hypothesis
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notesIs that it worked, produced measurable results and predictions, and it didn't matter that what gravity is remained a mystery.
31 JAN 2012 by ideonexus
Predictions of the Future are "Laughably Conservative"
If we have learned one thing from the history of invention and discovery, it is that, in the long run—and often in the short one—the most daring prophecies seem laughably conservative. Folksonomies: prescience prediction
Folksonomies: prescience prediction
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notesNot always true, but a nice sentiment.
04 JAN 2012 by ideonexus
Organic Chemists Merely Increase the Probability of Results
It is, I believe, justifiable to make the generalization that anything an organic chemist can synthesize can be made without him. All he does is increase the probability that given reactions will 'go.' So it is quite reasonable to assume that given sufficient time and proper conditions, nucleotides, amino acids, proteins, and nucleic acids will arise by reactions that, though less probable, are as inevitable as those by which the organic chemist fulfills his predictions. So why not self-dupli... 1 notes
notesIn nature, with enough time and proper conditions, the results would happen eventually without him, including self-duplicating molecular systems like viruses.
