An Algorithm for Predicting Longevity

For the test, participants exercised on a treadmill at increasing speed and incline. While they were exercising, the researches measured peak heart rate (%MPHR) and their ability to withstand physical exertion. On that latter point, they measured metabolic equivalents, or METs, which gauges how much energy the body expends during exercise. The more intense the exercise, the higher the METs (e.g. slow walking = ~2 METs, whereas running = ~8 METs).

[...]

FIT Treadmill Score = %MPHR 12(METS) - 4(age) 43(if female)

[...]

Yes, women live longer than men, hence the 43 bonus points.

The Mayo Clinic explains how the results of the formula are to be read:

Scores ranged from negative 200 to positive 200, with those above 0 having lower mortality risk and those in the negative range facing highest risk of dying. Patients who scored 100 or higher had a 2 percent risk of dying over the next 10 years, while those with scores between 0 and 100 faced a 3 percent death risk over the next decade. In other words, two of 100 people of the same age and gender with a score of 100 or higher would die over the next decade, compared with three out of 100 for those with a fitness score between 0 and 100. People with scores between negative 100 and 0 had an 11 percent risk of dying in the next 10 years, while those with scores lower than negative 100 had a 38 percent risk of dying.

Notes:

You can get your MPHR for your age here. I found a chart of METS here for various exercises.


Activity METS Activity METS
Aerobic Dancing 6.0 Running 12 min/mile 8.5
Backpacking 7.0 Racquetball 8.0
Badminton 7.0 Rugby 8.3
Basketball 6.0 Skating ice/roller 7.0
Bicycling - 24mph 5.0 Skiing cross country 8.0
Calisthenics 4.5 Soccer 8.0
Golf 5.0 Softball 5.0
Gymnastics 5.5 Swimming 6.0
Handball 8.0 Tennis 7.0
Hockey 8.0 Volleyball 4.0
Horse riding 3.5 Walking 3.5
Running 8 min/mile 12.5 Weight lifting 4.5

Bruce Protocol


Stage Minutes % grade km/h MPH METS
1 3 10 2.7 1.7 5
2 3 12 4.0 2.5 7
3 3 14 5.4 3.4 10
4 3 16 6.7 4.2 13
5 3 18 8.0 5.0 15
6 3 20 8.8 5.5 18
7 3 22 9.6 6.0 20


Total Durations = 21 minutes


So, if I'm understanding this correctly. If I reach a 160 heart rate out of 179.0 MPHR predicted for my 41 years of age while running 12 minute miles worth 8.5 METS. My score would be:

83.7 12(8.5) - 4(41) = 21.7

The same heart rate for my age running 8 minute miles:

83.7 12(8.5) - 4(41) = 69.7

Folksonomies: healthy algorithm longevity medicine

Taxonomies:
/sports/baseball (0.568298)
/sports/running and jogging (0.527777)
/health and fitness/exercise (0.405788)

Keywords:
mets (0.910765 (positive:0.080177)), heart rate (0.732103 (positive:0.255792)), percent risk (0.635018 (negative:-0.741688)), Skiing cross country (0.553067 (neutral:0.000000)), percent death risk (0.551045 (negative:-0.646673)), FIT Treadmill Score (0.527529 (positive:0.360843)), e.g. slow walking (0.513967 (neutral:0.000000)), peak heart rate (0.512633 (positive:0.255792)), lower mortality risk (0.507218 (negative:-0.794587)), Aerobic Dancing (0.392703 (positive:0.630528)), Predicting Longevity (0.382888 (positive:0.550840)), various exercises (0.370676 (negative:-0.294467)), Total Durations (0.354944 (neutral:0.000000)), Horse riding (0.354355 (negative:-0.312036)), physical exertion (0.352219 (positive:0.486230)), Weight lifting (0.349638 (negative:-0.578982)), Bruce Protocol (0.344352 (positive:0.328695)), negative range (0.343192 (negative:-0.794588)), metabolic equivalents (0.340880 (neutral:0.000000)), bonus points (0.332753 (positive:0.430442)), Mayo Clinic (0.327719 (positive:0.286375)), highest risk (0.322378 (negative:-0.794587)), age (0.322272 (positive:0.550840)), fitness score (0.316272 (positive:0.427664)), MPHR (0.286415 (positive:0.455842)), scores (0.239597 (negative:-0.719136)), min/mile (0.204075 (neutral:0.000000))

Entities:
METS:Organization (0.842046 (negative:-0.058191)), heart rate:FieldTerminology (0.361611 (positive:0.255792)), MPHR:Degree (0.257857 (positive:0.550840)), Racquetball:Sport (0.256657 (neutral:0.000000)), Backpacking:Sport (0.253723 (neutral:0.000000)), Mayo Clinic:Company (0.243545 (positive:0.286375)), Badminton:Sport (0.234467 (neutral:0.000000)), Skating:Sport (0.229824 (positive:0.384335)), Skiing:Sport (0.229556 (neutral:0.000000)), Gymnastics:Sport (0.227844 (positive:0.290369)), Softball:Sport (0.226928 (neutral:0.000000)), Basketball:Sport (0.226643 (neutral:0.000000)), Volleyball:Sport (0.225026 (neutral:0.000000)), Soccer:Sport (0.224414 (neutral:0.000000)), Bruce Protocol:Person (0.224018 (positive:0.328695)), Golf:Sport (0.222606 (neutral:0.000000)), Rugby:Sport (0.212225 (neutral:0.000000)), Tennis:Sport (0.206974 (negative:-0.264651)), 38 percent:Quantity (0.205251 (neutral:0.000000)), 12 minute:Quantity (0.205251 (neutral:0.000000)), 2 percent:Quantity (0.205251 (neutral:0.000000)), 3 percent:Quantity (0.205251 (neutral:0.000000)), 41 years:Quantity (0.205251 (neutral:0.000000)), 8 minute:Quantity (0.205251 (neutral:0.000000)), 12 min:Quantity (0.205251 (neutral:0.000000)), 24mph:Quantity (0.205251 (neutral:0.000000)), 10 years:Quantity (0.205251 (neutral:0.000000)), 11 percent:Quantity (0.205251 (neutral:0.000000)), 21 minutes:Quantity (0.205251 (neutral:0.000000)), Hockey:Sport (0.205251 (negative:-0.256745))

Concepts:
Exercise (0.936064): dbpedia
Physical exercise (0.923885): opencyc | freebase | dbpedia
Scores (0.810806): dbpedia
Walking (0.711241): dbpedia | freebase | opencyc
Treadmill (0.612310): dbpedia | freebase | opencyc

 This Treadmill Test Can Predict Your Odds Of Surviving Another Decade
Electronic/World Wide Web>Internet Article:  Dvorsky, George (03/03/2015), This Treadmill Test Can Predict Your Odds Of Surviving Another Decade, Retrieved on 2015-03-04
  • Source Material [io9.com]
  • Folksonomies: health longevity


    Schemas

    04 MAR 2015

     Longevity

    How to live longer.
     29