An Algorithm for Predicting Longevity
For the test, participants exercised on a treadmill at increasing speed and incline. While they were exercising, the researches measured peak heart rate (%MPHR) and their ability to withstand physical exertion. On that latter point, they measured metabolic equivalents, or METs, which gauges how much energy the body expends during exercise. The more intense the exercise, the higher the METs (e.g. slow walking = ~2 METs, whereas running = ~8 METs).
[...]
FIT Treadmill Score = %MPHR 12(METS) - 4(age) 43(if female)
[...]
Yes, women live longer than men, hence the 43 bonus points.
The Mayo Clinic explains how the results of the formula are to be read:
Scores ranged from negative 200 to positive 200, with those above 0 having lower mortality risk and those in the negative range facing highest risk of dying. Patients who scored 100 or higher had a 2 percent risk of dying over the next 10 years, while those with scores between 0 and 100 faced a 3 percent death risk over the next decade. In other words, two of 100 people of the same age and gender with a score of 100 or higher would die over the next decade, compared with three out of 100 for those with a fitness score between 0 and 100. People with scores between negative 100 and 0 had an 11 percent risk of dying in the next 10 years, while those with scores lower than negative 100 had a 38 percent risk of dying.
Notes:
You can get your MPHR for your age here. I found a chart of METS here for various exercises.
| Activity | METS | Activity | METS |
| Aerobic Dancing | 6.0 | Running 12 min/mile | 8.5 |
| Backpacking | 7.0 | Racquetball | 8.0 |
| Badminton | 7.0 | Rugby | 8.3 |
| Basketball | 6.0 | Skating ice/roller | 7.0 |
| Bicycling - 24mph | 5.0 | Skiing cross country | 8.0 |
| Calisthenics | 4.5 | Soccer | 8.0 |
| Golf | 5.0 | Softball | 5.0 |
| Gymnastics | 5.5 | Swimming | 6.0 |
| Handball | 8.0 | Tennis | 7.0 |
| Hockey | 8.0 | Volleyball | 4.0 |
| Horse riding | 3.5 | Walking | 3.5 |
| Running 8 min/mile | 12.5 | Weight lifting | 4.5 |
| Stage | Minutes | % grade | km/h | MPH | METS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 10 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 5 |
| 2 | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 7 |
| 3 | 3 | 14 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 10 |
| 4 | 3 | 16 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 13 |
| 5 | 3 | 18 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 15 |
| 6 | 3 | 20 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 18 |
| 7 | 3 | 22 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 20 |
Total Durations = 21 minutes
So, if I'm understanding this correctly. If I reach a 160 heart rate out of 179.0 MPHR predicted for my 41 years of age while running 12 minute miles worth 8.5 METS. My score would be:
83.7 12(8.5) - 4(41) = 21.7
The same heart rate for my age running 8 minute miles:
83.7 12(8.5) - 4(41) = 69.7
Folksonomies: medicine longevity algorithm healthy
Taxonomies:
/sports/baseball (0.568298)
/sports/running and jogging (0.527777)
/health and fitness/exercise (0.405788)
Keywords:
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Entities:
METS:Organization (0.842046 (negative:-0.058191)), heart rate:FieldTerminology (0.361611 (positive:0.255792)), MPHR:Degree (0.257857 (positive:0.550840)), Racquetball:Sport (0.256657 (neutral:0.000000)), Backpacking:Sport (0.253723 (neutral:0.000000)), Mayo Clinic:Company (0.243545 (positive:0.286375)), Badminton:Sport (0.234467 (neutral:0.000000)), Skating:Sport (0.229824 (positive:0.384335)), Skiing:Sport (0.229556 (neutral:0.000000)), Gymnastics:Sport (0.227844 (positive:0.290369)), Softball:Sport (0.226928 (neutral:0.000000)), Basketball:Sport (0.226643 (neutral:0.000000)), Volleyball:Sport (0.225026 (neutral:0.000000)), Soccer:Sport (0.224414 (neutral:0.000000)), Bruce Protocol:Person (0.224018 (positive:0.328695)), Golf:Sport (0.222606 (neutral:0.000000)), Rugby:Sport (0.212225 (neutral:0.000000)), Tennis:Sport (0.206974 (negative:-0.264651)), 38 percent:Quantity (0.205251 (neutral:0.000000)), 12 minute:Quantity (0.205251 (neutral:0.000000)), 2 percent:Quantity (0.205251 (neutral:0.000000)), 3 percent:Quantity (0.205251 (neutral:0.000000)), 41 years:Quantity (0.205251 (neutral:0.000000)), 8 minute:Quantity (0.205251 (neutral:0.000000)), 12 min:Quantity (0.205251 (neutral:0.000000)), 24mph:Quantity (0.205251 (neutral:0.000000)), 10 years:Quantity (0.205251 (neutral:0.000000)), 11 percent:Quantity (0.205251 (neutral:0.000000)), 21 minutes:Quantity (0.205251 (neutral:0.000000)), Hockey:Sport (0.205251 (negative:-0.256745))
Concepts:
Exercise (0.936064): dbpedia
Physical exercise (0.923885): opencyc | freebase | dbpedia
Scores (0.810806): dbpedia
Walking (0.711241): dbpedia | freebase | opencyc
Treadmill (0.612310): dbpedia | freebase | opencyc
This Treadmill Test Can Predict Your Odds Of Surviving Another Decade
