10 MAR 2017 by ideonexus

 Creative and Social Intelligence are Computational Bottle...

Our model predicts that the second wave of computerisation will mainly depend on overcoming the engineering bottlenecks related to creative and social intelligence. As reported in Table III, the “fine arts”, “originality”, “negotiation”, “persuasion”, “social perceptiveness”, and “assisting and caring for others”, variables, all exhibit relatively high values in the low risk category. By contrast, we note that the “manual dexterity”, “finger dexterity” and “c...
  1  notes

Generalist skills, like management, are hard to automate. Could everyone therefore become a manager of an automatized field?

08 MAR 2015 by ideonexus

 College-Graduates have a Lower Unemployment Rate

We looked at the website of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which calculates the national unemployment rate as well as unemployment rates for various subgroups. Those subgroups include Americans of four specific educational attainment levels. They are: less than a high school diploma; a high school diploma but no college; some college experience but no college diploma; and a college diploma. For those with less than a high school diploma, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 13.8 pe...
Folksonomies: academia employment
Folksonomies: academia employment
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04 JAN 2012 by ideonexus

 Computers Can't Do Everything

The … truck driver is processing a constant stream of [visual, aural, and tactile] information from his environment. … To program this behavior we could begin with a video camera and other sensors to capture the sensory input. But executing a left turn against oncoming traffic involves so many factors that it is hard to imagine discovering the set of rules that can replicate a driver’s behavior. … Articulating [human] knowledge and embedding it in software for all but highly structur...
Folksonomies: employment automation
Folksonomies: employment automation
  1  notes

They cannot drive trucks yet, but how long until they can?

04 JAN 2012 by ideonexus

 Online Shopping Replaces Sales People

During the Great Recession, nearly 1 in 12 people working in sales in America lost their job, accelerating a trend that had begun long before. In 1995, for example, 2.08 people were employed in “sales and related” occupations for every $1 million of real GDP generated that year. By 2002 (the last year for which consistent data are available), that number had fallen to 1.79, a decline of nearly 14 percent.
Folksonomies: employment automation
Folksonomies: employment automation
  1  notes

Everytime you purchase something online, that's something you didn't purchase from a retail clerk.

04 JAN 2012 by ideonexus

 Keynes Predicts Unemployment from Automation

We are being afflicted with a new disease of which some readers may not yet have heard the name, but of which they will hear a great deal in the years to come—namely, technological unemployment. This means unemployment due to our discovery of means of economising the use of labour outrunning the pace at which we can find new uses for labour.
Folksonomies: employment automation
Folksonomies: employment automation
  1  notes

He predicts technological progress will outrun the pace for which we can find new uses for labor in 1930.

04 JAN 2012 by ideonexus

 The Population Must Increase Education to Stay Ahead of T...

...the relative demand for skilled labor is closely correlated with advances in technology, particularly digital technologies. Hence, the moniker “skill-biased technical change,” or SBTC. There are two distinct components to recent SBTC. Technologies like robotics, numerically controlled machines, computerized inventory control, and automatic transcription have been substituting for routine tasks, displacing those workers. Meanwhile other technologies like data visualization, analytics, h...
  1  notes

As people are automated out of jobs, society must increase their educations in order to keep them on top of the machines.

04 JAN 2012 by ideonexus

 Shifting From Labor to Capital Reduces Demands

Finally, it’s easy to see how a shift in income from labor to capital would lead to a similar reduction in overall demand. Capitalists tend to save more of each marginal dollar than laborers. In the short run, a transfer from laborers to capitalists reduces total consumption, and thus total GDP. This phenomenon is summarized in a classic though possibly apocryphal story: Ford CEO Henry Ford II and United Automobile Workers president Walter Reuther are jointly touring a modern auto plant. Fo...
Folksonomies: employment automation
Folksonomies: employment automation
  1  notes

Because the workers automated out of jobs can't buy things.

04 JAN 2012 by ideonexus

 The U-Shape of Automation

As we look ahead, we see these three trends not only accelerating but also evolving. For instance, new research by David Autor and David Dorn has put an interesting twist on the SBTC story. They find that the relationship between skills and wages has recently become U-shaped. In the most recent decade, demand has fallen most for those in the middle of the skill distribution. The highest-skilled workers have done well, but interestingly those with the lowest skills have suffered less than thos...
Folksonomies: employment automation
Folksonomies: employment automation
  1  notes

People in semi-skilled jobs have been the ones most automated out of jobs, while highly-technical and more menial jobs have remained.

04 JAN 2012 by ideonexus

 The Decline of the Horse

There was a type of employee at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution whose job and livelihood largely vanished in the early twentieth century. This was the horse. The population of working horses actually peaked in England long after the Industrial Revolution, in 1901, when 3.25 million were at work. Though they had been replaced by rail for long-distance haulage and by steam engines for driving machinery, they still plowed fields, hauled wagons and carriages short distances, pulled boa...
  1  notes

How cars replacing horses reduces their populations.

04 JAN 2012 by ideonexus

 The Problem of Measuring Productivity

Although the official productivity statistics are encouraging, they are far from perfect. They don’t do a very good job of accounting for quality, variety, timeliness, customer service, or other hard-to-measure aspects of output. While bushels of wheat and tons of steel are relatively easy to count, the quality of a teacher’s instruction, the value of more cereal choices in a supermarket, or the ability to get money from an ATM 24 hours a day is harder to assess. Compounding this measure...
Folksonomies: employment productivity
Folksonomies: employment productivity
  1  notes

Productivity doesn't take into account improved qualities of life, free digital content online, or other non-quantifiable qualitative improvements in our lives.